Planet Money and Baseline Scenario

The podcast NPR Planet Money is pretty good. Also, MIT Prof Simon Johnson's blog Baseline Scenario is worth checking out and has videos of an excellent seminar series on the financial crisis.

Peter Schiff video highlights

Euro Pacific Captal president Peter Schiff predicted many of the current economic problems a while ago(video).

From Cannonfire:

"This video sequence offers a compendium of appearances (covering the 2006-2007 period) by Euro Pacific Capital president Peter Schiff, who is a frequent -- and frequently disrespected -- talking head on cable news shows. What astonishes is not just the accuracy of his dour predictions about the economy but the sheer arrogance of every other person appearing on these programs."

Schiff was recently featured on the NPR Planet Money podcast.

The Black Belt: How Soil Types Determined the 2008 Election in the Deep South

http://vigorousnorth.blogspot.com/2008/11/black-belt-how-soil-types-determined.html

From the Onion

"War On String May Be Unwinnable, Says Cat General"

...and that was quick

Here's the McCain response to Biden as VP made a few hours before Obama's campaign announced it around 3:00 am, US Eastern time (freebie GOP joke: because Obama's still on European time). From CNN:

Sen. John McCain's campaign quickly reacted to word that Biden would be Obama's running mate, calling attention to Biden's past comments about Obama's experience.

"There has been no harsher critic of Barack Obama's lack of experience than Joe Biden," McCain campaign spokesman Ben Porritt said in a written statement.

"Biden has denounced Barack Obama's poor foreign policy judgment and has strongly argued in his own words what Americans are quickly realizing -- that Barack Obama is not ready to be president."

In a debate during the Democratic primary contest, Biden raised questions about Obama's foreign policy experience.

"Who among us is going to be able on day one to step in an end the war? Who among us understands what to do about Pakistan? Who among us is going to pick up the phone and immediately interface with Putin and tell him to lay off Georgia because Saakashvili is in real trouble. Who among us knows what they're doing? I have 35 years of experience," Biden said.

During another debate, moderator George Stephanopoulos referred to some of Biden's comments on Obama.

"You were asked, 'Is he ready?' You said, 'I think he can be ready, but right now, I don't believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training,'" Stephanopoulos said.

"I think I stand by that statement," Biden replied.

Obama '08: well that was fun

All McCain needs now is a female running mate and things will get really easy for him--most likely anti-abortion rights Carly Fiorina or even pro-choice Meg Whitman. How will the McCain ticket match up against Obama-Biden? National Review Online has kindly assembled a sampler of Biden quotations that the McCain campaign will use against Obama daily. Here are a few:

"John McCain is a personal friend, a great friend, and I would be honored to run with or against John McCain, because I think the country would be better off..."

"I’ve been calling for more troops for over two years, along with John McCain and others subsequent to my saying that."

"'My impression is [Obama] thinks that if we leave, somehow the Iraqis are going to have an epiphany” of peaceful coexistence among warring sects. 'I’ve seen zero evidence of that.'"

"The more people learn about them (Obama and Hillary) and how they handle the pressure, the more their support will evaporate."

Ironically, now that he's running against two senators, McCain and a non-career politician running mate could argue that they are the candidates for change.* Again the National Review forecasts what we'll be hearing daily for the next nine weeks:

"Before winning election to the Senate three-and-a-half decades ago—Biden ranks fourth in seniority among Democrats, sixth overall; how's that for a fresh face?—Biden practiced law for three years. That's it. Three years of fresh-out-of-law school practice represents the sum and total of Biden's profession experience before joining the Senate. [SVS: compare this to Meg Whitman, for example, being a self-made billionaire.]

"Obama-Biden? A candidate with an astonishingly thin professional background—Community organizer? Desultory lecturer in law school?—has just named as his running mate a man whose principal professional achievement is to have perfected his skills as a gasbag."

The Democrats just don't seem to get it. Yes, Biden would probably be a much better VP than Hillary, but there will be no O'Biden administration because the Democrats are horrible at playing the identity politics that win national elections.

The Economist sums up Obama's challenges well; it's conclusion is spot on:

"Most of all, [Obama] needs to spend those 68 days showing that he understands, and can connect with, ordinary Americans. The economy ought to be the Democrats’ trump card, just as security tends to be the Republicans’. But some of the most surprising recent polls show that Mr Obama is rated lower by voters on how he would handle the economy than is Mr McCain, who has admitted that he doesn’t know much about the subject. That may be because Mr Obama often sounds curiously disconnected from the troubles of anyone except America’s very poorest. Mrs Clinton was much better at empathising with middle America, and Mr Obama needs to show he has learnt from her.

"That could also help heal the wounds of the Democratic Party, which, after the bitter contest and Mr Obama’s narrow victory, are still raw. If the Democrats remain divided they will lose the presidency. Were that to happen, after Iraq, Katrina and an economic crisis, they might well want to consider an alternative line of work."

*I'm pretty sure JFK-LBJ is the only two-senator ticket to win. An interesting comparison--JFK selected LBJ to gain his Southern supporters; Obama chose not to go with Hillary to gain her supporters.

Losing Jesusland, 2008

On RealClearPolitics.com's Electoral Map with no toss-up states McCain just took the lead 274 to 264. That would give Obama all the Kerry/Edwards states plus Iowa and New Mexico. Sadly, that scenario seems likely to me (minus IA and NM, maybe). I just can't imagine the country that re-elected W voting for "a Black man whose whose middle name is Hussein and whose father was a Muslim." Based on lessons learned in 2004, policy differences and debates don't matter--image does. In the case of Bush, people voted for him because he reminded them of themselves or the people they wished they were: tough patriots of WWII or an industrial golden age, or cowboys even. The undecideds that Obama and McCain are fighting over right now? They're idiots. Policies don't matter, qualifications don't matter, Georgia sure as hell doesn't matter--they're going to vote for the guy who reminds them of themselves while the God formed in their own image smiles down on them from his harem in the sky.

And the media coverage is classic. Hagel or Luger as Obama's VP? How hard is it to check a Senator's voting record? They could hardly be more opposite.

The Obama campaign seems to go for the sensational stuff, so Ralph Nader might be right about Obama tipping Hillary for VP. All the scandals the news media would cook up about friction between Obama and the Clintons could be a good way to keep attention from McCain. That might give Obama a shot. The other person who might give Obama a chance is Al Gore. Gore has said he's staying out of politics to spend more time promoting public awareness and policy changes to address climate change. From a supposedly logical guy that's a pretty illogical stance. It's hard to imagine a more powerful base for a campaign against climate change than the White House. Also, Gore is a career politician from a political family. Surely he feels cheated by the disorganization and scandals of the Clinton administration and all the wasted potential. Perhaps he'd like a second chance? I hope so, but Gore is probably tired of playing for the losing team.

After giving it some more thought, I'd say Obama doesn't have a choice and has to go with Hillary--his only realistic option for a woman VP. If Obama goes with a man, McCain has a couple excellent choices for a female VP--former eBay CEO Meg Whitman or former HP CEO Carly Fiorina--game over for Obama without Hillary.

Monkey news

What a joke. Top Stories from CNN today:

• Monkey triggers Tokyo subway chaos
• Abandoned baby whale could be killed
• Gorilla refuses to let go of her dead baby
• Can invisible cloaks become reality?

Not most emailed or most read--they must have been selected as Top Stories by an editor/producer. I haven't read any of them.

Credit crisis sages and stooges

Fortune has an entertaining (god I'm lame) feature on people who predicted the credit crisis and those who didn't. I'm sure those who 'didn't' really did, but their jobs depend upon keeping investor/consumer confidence up. It's too bad Fortune didn't include individual wealth in the profiles. I'll bet the aggregate worth of the didn'ts is much higher than the dids.

Anti-inflation

Leslie's in the US and tells me I should be glad I'm not there to witness the endless coverage of Obama's tire gauge remark. Here's a good Paul Krugman editorial on the subject.

"...know-nothingism — the insistence that there are simple, brute-force, instant-gratification answers to every problem, and that there’s something effeminate and weak about anyone who suggests otherwise — has become the core of Republican policy and political strategy. The party’s de facto slogan has become: 'Real men don’t think things through.'"

The McCain campaign has definitely gained momentum with new oil wells versus tire gauges and I'm not surprised--I just hope it doesn't end up being a turning point this election year. What's a better political strategy, creating the perception that lower fuel prices are ahead or appealing to American resourcefulness and social conscientiousness?

It would be great to see Obama both stick to his guns and strike back with something unexpected, even if unrealistic, such as tax credits for using public transportation or vehicle maintenance and upgrades.

The Hollow Men

The Big Picture blog at boston.com has a spectacular photo series of the Large Hadron Collider. There are many other series in this blog worth checking out.

"The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a 27 kilometer (17 mile) long particle accelerator straddling the border of Switzerland and France, is nearly set to begin its first particle beam tests. The European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) is preparing for its first small tests in early August, leading to a planned full-track test in September - and the first planned particle collisions before the end of the year. The final step before starting is the chilling of the entire collider to -271.25 C (-456.25 F)."

Obama as law school lecturer

Here's a good NYT article on Obama's twelve years as a lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School.

"So even some former students who are thrilled at Mr. Obama’s success wince when they hear him speaking like the politician he has so fully become.

'When you hear him talking about issues, it’s at a level so much simpler than the one he’s capable of,' Mr. Rodriguez said. 'He was a lot more fun to listen to back then.'"

According to Joe Klein, McCain dumbs things down quite a bit too:

Joe Klein: My big problems with McCain began with a simple question that I asked him at a press conference: "Why do always talk about Ahmadinejad as if he is the leader of Iran when he isn't?" And he said, "I beg to differ with you, he is." I said, "But you know, the Supreme Leader controls the nuclear policy and the foreign policy," and McCain said, "But Ahmadinejad is the guy who shows up at the United Nations and the average American thinks he's the leader."

Yugoslavian war doco

A few weeks ago (corresponding with a large gap in my blog posts) I watched a six-part 1995 BBC documentary on the Yugoslavian war by way of this Kottke.org post and Google Video. It is a fascinating documentary--many thorough, revealing interviews with political leaders, diplomats, and soldiers. Here's the first episode. Betcha can't watch just one.

Coincidentally, Bosnian Serb Radovan Karadzic was arrested four days ago for genocide and crimes against humanity during that conflict. Had I not seen the documentary a couple weeks before I'd have no idea who the guy is.

Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, the guy credited with ending the conflict in 1995, recently wrote this in the Washington Post on the subject of Karadzic and had this to say on NPR Talk of the Nation (essentially the same thing). He was an adviser to Hillary Clinton's recent campaign and a potential Secretary of State. It will be interesting to see if he pops up in an Obama administration.

You've been left behind, sucker

This Christian website offers true believers a way to deliver messages to their loved ones left behind after the rapture. It's worth a look through the site to see how it works--funny and scary. It involves a team of Christian couples logging into the site every day to demonstrate that the rapture hasn't occurred (no internet in heaven?!). If three of the four couples fail to log in for three consecutive days, then, of course, the rapture must have occurred and the stored messages from subscribers are sent out (see, because they should have been sucked up into heaven, too!). The site encourages people to upload their bank details with passwords so that those left behind can at least have some extra cash while they're attacked by scorpions with human heads.

Irrational agents

Dartmouth Economics Professor Annamaria Lusardi asked Americans the following questions to assess American financial literacy:

1. Suppose you had $100 in a savings account and the interest rate was 2 percent per year. After 5 years, how much do you think you would have in the account if you left the money to grow?

a. More than $102
b. Exactly $102
c. Less than $102
d. Do not know

2. Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 percent per year and inflation was 2 percent per year. After 1 year, would you be able to buy more than, exactly the same as, or less than today with the money in this account?

a. More than today
b. Exactly the same as today
c. Less than today
d. Do not know

3. Do you think that the following statement is true or false? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”

a. True
b. False
c. Do not know

Half the respondents age 50+ answered the first two question correctly; 1/3 answered all three correctly. Wow.

[more from the NYT Freakonomics blog]

What amazes me is not Americans' lack of general knowledge about such a conspicuous subject of current events. When god in school debates spring up in the news media I doubt people unfamiliar with theories of evolution rush to learn about it to keep up with things. The crazy thing about economic illiteracy is how obviously harmful it is to nearly any individual's self-interest.

If you're wondering like I am how the US can simultaneously have such a high percentage of idiots, be a democracy, and have the world's largest economy, here's an excellent NPR Science Friday interview of Michael Mauboussin on the subject of how markets might function in the absence of rational agents. Agent diversity, information aggregation mechanisms, and incentives are the critical components of Mauboussin's efficient economy low on rationality.

US economic forecasts

Just within the last couple weeks it's become a lot harder to find credible articles that downplay US economic troubles. This NYT article and this FT article are good examples of recent gloomier articles--both summarize how there's no good news for the US economy. While reading the articles it occurred to me that I've not come across any hypotheses on how the US might exit the current downturn. Authors write that the US Federal government needs to do something, but suggestions all revolve around short term, superficial actions. Also missing from US economic discussions is mention of the US economic future past 2010. The debate about opening restricted US coastal areas to oil explorations is a good example of such shortsightedness. Production time lines and short term effects on fuel prices should have little to do with the debate, but somehow they've become the central issues.

The stimulus package Congressional Democrats are working on sounds like a good start, but there's no chance they'll get it passed before the November elections and, as a result, their urgency seems cynical.

Ca-CA cancer collaboration

The Canadian government is giving Californian research institutes, in collaboration with Canadian researchers, $100m to study cancer stem cells. What does that say about US federal government funding? Californian researchers are looking to additional countries to fund research:

"'We are excited about the opportunities presented by this international collaboration with our Canadian colleagues,' stated Robert N. Klein, Chairman of the Governing Board of CIRM, the state stem cell agency. 'Coordinating scientific efforts should shorten the time that it takes to drive discoveries into the clinic and to patients. We hope to enter into several agreements with other nations to significantly expand this vital stem cell research and extend our ability to accelerate the field.'"

Oil speculations

Paul Krugman's economics editorials are usually good and his latest on the cause of high oil prices sounds good to me. He argues that speculation is a form of wagering that has limited impact on prices and that global demand is rising, etc.

"Why are politicians so eager to pin the blame for oil prices on speculators? Because it lets them believe that we don’t have to adapt to a world of expensive gas."

In addition to the global demand explanation, it could be as simple as this: imagine Firm A relies on a product from Firm B, but lacks real capital for payment and instead pays Firm B with stock in Firm A. The value of that stock declines and naturally Firm B wants more flesh, not just to keep up with current losses, but to compensate for declining holdings too. The US dollar is weak, US business is weak--what's a poor Saudi King to do?

It's possible in the short term that the issue of whether or not supplies are decreasing relative to demand is irrelevant as long as people think that's the case. Perhaps that explains the Saudi's thinking when they recently increased oil production? Their gamble seems to have paid off--they increased production and oil prices rose. It's certainly ironic to see peak oil proponents deride oil companies when the peak oil argument benefits oil producers so much.

The only thing I disagree with in the Krugman article is that "Regulating futures markets more tightly isn’t a bad idea..." It wouldn't matter. There could be no effort to regulate futures markets worldwide and increasing regulation in some markets would just shift trading to unregulated ones. How would the US dollar do in oil trading in regulated US/UK markets versus a less regulated one in Dubai? Do ya reckon the Chinese are wringing their hands over oil speculators? Just the opposite: the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange will start selling oil futures next year.

I imagine oil bargaining between the US and OPEC is a lot friendlier than what is starting to heat up between Russia and the rest of Europe. It just occurred to me that I should have included something about Putin's strategic plans for Russia's fossil fuel wealth and Europe in the post about Russian oil. From Scott Horton, Harpers.org:

"Putin has an impressive, personal mastery of energy policy. Indeed, this has been a subject that has long captivated him. In St Petersburg, Putin did his kandidat nauk with his dissertation topic on the creation of a foreign policy for Russia which derived maximum benefit from Russia’s enormous oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the gas aspect. The dissertation argues that Russia’s gas resources and Middle Europe’s dramatic gas needs provide Russia with far more effective leverage with the Europeans than the military calculus of the late Soviet period."

What will Russia do when the Euro inevitably starts to slip?

China earthquake wedding photos

Amazing photos taken during an earthquake and wedding in China. I thought twice about posting the link because it seemed out of date at first. But, c'mon, it happened only a few weeks ago.

Russian military and oil

This month's National Geographic has a good article on oil production in Russia. It's the world's largest oil producer. The print version of the article has a striking map of how much Russian oil and natural gas is exported to Europe.

"Why is Moscow risking a new cold war?" at Spiegel.com describes what Russia's military is up to these days:

"A hint of the Cold War has been revived between the East and West, since Russia began sending out its pilots on missions once again, since its aircraft, in a throwback to Soviet days, have reappeared on radar screens in the Western hemisphere, and since they have, on occasion, come within touching distance of the British border and flown over the American aircraft carrier 'Nimitz' and a Japanese island (albeit unpopulated), to which Tokyo responded by dispatching two dozen fighter jets to drive out the intruders. 'Our job is to show that since we are capable of flying this far, we are also capable of carrying weapons to our destination,' says Major General Pavel Androssov, the commander of all strategic aircraft."

Western media soft on Fundy Islam

Bruce Bawer argues that Western news media and cultural outlets detrimentally self-censor criticisms of fundamentalist Islam.

"Motivated variously, and doubtless sometimes simultaneously, by fear, misguided sympathy, and multicultural ideology—which teaches us to belittle our freedoms and to genuflect to non-Western cultures, however repressive—people at every level of Western society, but especially elites, have allowed concerns about what fundamentalist Muslims will feel, think, or do to influence their actions and expressions. These Westerners have begun, in other words, to internalize the strictures of sharia, and thus implicitly to accept the deferential status of dhimmis—infidels living in Muslim societies."

He's the author of While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within and Stealing Jesus: How Fundamentalism Betrays Christianity.

Who's running the show

The Nation reports that the average income for the top 5 hedge fund managers in 2005 was $12.6 billion. Assuming that's the mean, the combined annual income of those five individuals exceeds the GDPs of most of the countries on Earth.

Places Yanks can't visit--part II

This blog might be turning into a Scott Horton fan site, but he's written a very satisfying article in the New Republic on the possibility (near inevitability) of Bush administration officials being charged in countries other than the US with war crimes, particularly crimes involving torture.

Horton writes, "...I have spoken with two investigating magistrates in two different European nations, both pro-Iraq war NATO allies. Both were assembling war crimes charges against a small group of Bush administration officials."

"...Colin Powell's chief of staff, Colonel Larry Wilkerson, nails it: 'Haynes, Feith, Yoo, Bybee, Gonzales and--at the apex--Addington, should never travel outside the U.S., except perhaps to Saudi Arabia and Israel [yay!]. They broke the law; they violated their professional ethical code. In the future, some government may build the case necessary to prosecute them in a foreign court, or in an international court.'"

12th Annual Okie Gun Cling

Only two more days until the Oklahoma Full Auto Shoot and Trade Show [video]. That would be one hell of a campaign stop for Obama.

Wine carbon footprints

According to Tyler Coleman (Dr. Vino), wine consumers may reduce their carbon footprints by drinking California wines if they're to the left of the line on the map, or drinking European wines if to the right of the line. No mention of other continents, but I'm guessing Aussie wines in the US are more Hummer than hybrid.

Swiss plant dignity and the end of time

According to Nature and others, Swiss law requires plant researchers to describe in grant applications how they will respect plant dignity in their experiments. It's tough to tell if the requirement is the unintended result of vaguely worded legislation or if it's intentionally anti-GMO. In any case, the Swiss plant dignity law is certainly ironic in the context of the Large Hadron Collider lawsuit. The LHC, on the border of France and Switzerland, will be the world's most powerful particle collider when it is completed in a few weeks. Some physicists fear it might destroy the universe. Amazingly, the operators of the LHC admit that it could create persistent black holes--no worries.

Michael Sheehan: how to deal with terrorism

From Harpers.org, a Scott Horton interview with Michael Sheehan on how societies should respond to the threat of terrorism and terrorist attacks.

TSA: no ID, no problem*

The TSA policy on air passengers without ID is to allow them on the flight after a thorough search as long as the passenger truly doesn't have ID and isn't just refusing to show it. That makes domestic no-fly lists absolutely pointless. The upside is that, in a jam, ditching your ID could be a good way to skip to the front of long security screening lines.

RFK's last train ride

NYT has a powerful slide show of photographs taken from the train that carried Bobby Kennedy's body from NYC to DC. Narrated by the photographer, Paul Fusco. "...and they saw hope pass by, in a train." Another reminder that the US needs to move on from the last 60 years.

(Hey Hillary, what month was that again?)

Latest Cheney Tape May Contain Evidence Of His Whereabouts

From The Onion

Censorship by Uhu

In China thousands of copies of the recent National Geographic Magazine featuring China have had pages glued together. Leslie and I have the issue (unglued)--she's looking forward to guessing what pages were censored.

$1m Warren Buffett bet

Warren Buffett bet managers of a hedge fund that a simple S&P 500 index fund outperforms their fund (accounting for fees) over the next 10 years. Buffett gives himself a 60% chance of winning and the hedge fund managers are glad they just have to outperform the S&P 500 and not Buffett. The picture of the fund managers is creepy--like a scene out of Vanilla Sky--probably not an accident.

Five places Yanks can't visit (Rebels too)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4328

Jim Webb coverage increasing

Looks like the news media are going to hype Jim Webb as Obama's VP for the next week or two. Here and here are articles. He's the current leader on Intrade by 5 points over Clinton, whatever that means. Of the candidate names thrown around so far I'd say he and Biden are the best bets. At the same time, Webb was a Republican not too long ago and who knows who Obama's real allies are? Also, Biden will be in his 70s by 2016--tough for his own pres campaign.

Scott Horton and Max Weber on good politicians (?)

Scott Horton's blog on Harpers.org is consistently excellent. Here's an entry on a 1919 speech German sociologist Max Weber gave on what makes good politicians and how public apathy ruins countries. Surprisingly, after outlining a nearly Platonic ideal of politicians, Horton concludes that Obama and McCain really aren't so bad.

[Video] Maybe the English aren't so smart

Guy kicks a fence, fence guillotines guy's leg. Really, it's worth a watch.

British bubbly

This is the first post of this blog and I'm kicking it off with Champagne. Check out the entry on this Royal Society timeline for 1662. Turns out sparkling wine was invented by a Pom. I had no idea, but I'm glad it wasn't patented.

The word on the street is that big Champagne producers are buying land near Dover, UK in anticipation of global warming decreasing grape quality in Champagne vineyards. Dover and Champagne are part of the same geological feature that provides chalky soil in both places--good for bubbly.

On the same subject, researchers derived temperatures from Pinot Noir harvest dates in Burgundy from 1370 to 2003 and found that temperatures were pretty high in the Middle Ages, but 2003 was très hot.

No more outdated wine articles for a while hopefully.